How likely is a major stock market pullback this year? A major pullback is possible this year, but not something anyone can time with confidence . The sources I found point to a market that is still supported by strong earnings expectations and AI enthusiasm, while also looking vulnerable because valuations are rich and surprises can hit hard. How to think about the odds A 5% to 10% drawdown is fairly normal in most years, and some commentators say 2026 already looks close to that range. The bigger risk is a correction or sharper pullback if earnings disappoint, inflation reaccelerates or geopolitics and policy shocks shake confidence. At the same time, some strategists still expect the bull market to continue, which means the market is not uniformly flashing recession or crash signals. What raises the risk High valuations leave less room for error. Concentration in a few large stocks makes indexes more fragile if leadership wea...
Investment and economic observations by N. Russell Wayne, CFP, MBA. Mr. Wayne is the president of Sound Asset Management, inc. and former Managing Editor of The Value Line Investment Survey.