This Time It’s NOT Different Whether economic times are good or bad, there always seem to be wizards making weighty pronouncements that suggest dramatic changes have taken place in the fundamentals underlying the economy and the marketplace. If in fact one of these turns out to be on target, it most assuredly was as probable as winning a lottery. The reality is that over time the world of business and investment markets moves ahead in cycles, not in a smooth linear pattern. Interest rates rise and fall. Inflation surges and moderates. Corporate profits climb, with hiccups along the way. And there’s always geopolitical trouble under way or in the wings. There have been numerous events that could have earned the label “different”, but none stopped the ongoing rise in the stock market. In the early 1970s, we were mired in the Vietnam war. Now the conflict is in Ukraine. During the late 1970s, interest rates soared into the mid-teens. Now they’re in the low-single
Investment and economic observations by N. Russell Wayne, CFP, MBA. Mr. Wayne is the president of Sound Asset Management, inc. and former Managing Editor of The Value Line Investment Survey.