Sound Advice

  Most major Wall Street outlooks currently  do  expect a positive, though more modest, gain for US stocks in 2026, not a flat or down year. ​ What Wall Street Is Pricing In Large strategists’ S&P 500 targets cluster in low- to mid‑single‑digit to low‑teens price gains (roughly 3–13% price upside), plus dividends. ​ FactSet’s earnings aggregation points to about 15% S&P 500 EPS growth in 2026, which historically has been consistent with at least some positive equity return, even if multiples compress. ​ Key Bullish Supports Forecasts generally assume: continued (but slower) US growth around a bit above 2%, falling recession odds near 30%, and incremental Fed easing supporting risk assets. ​ Multiple houses (Goldman, Morgan Stanley, Yardeni, etc.) see a fourth straight up year driven primarily by earnings growth rather than further valuation expansion. ​ Why Upside May Be Smaller Consens...

What is the likely result of the upcoming midterm elections in November? There is no single “likely result” yet, but early indicators suggest Democrats have a modest edge to gain in the U.S. House and a plausible, though harder, path to a narrow Senate majority, while Republicans are favored to remain highly competitive overall. Forecasts are still uncertain this far out, and small shifts in national mood or candidate quality could flip control of one or both chambers. ​​ House of Representatives Democrats need only a handful of seats to flip the House, after Republicans entered the cycle with a slim majority (around 220 seats) and face the usual midterm drag on the president’s party. ​ Generic-ballot polling and independent forecast models currently lean slightly toward Democrats netting enough gains to take a narrow House majority, but ratings still show many true toss‑ups. ​ Senate Republicans hold a 53–47 Senate majority going int...

What's ahead for the financial markets. The Gestapo was Nazi Germany’s secret state police, formally called the  Geheime Staatspolizei , which operated from 1933 to 1945 as a central instrument of political repression and terror. It targeted anyone seen as an enemy of the Nazi regime—such as political opponents, Jews, Roma, LGBTQ people, clergy, and other marginalized or dissenting groups—using surveillance, informants, arbitrary arrest, torture, and imprisonment in concentration camps, often without any legal process . What methods did the Gestapo use to spy on citizens? The Gestapo relied on a mix of formal powers and a vast, informal network of fear and denunciations to spy on people. Their methods blurred ordinary policing with political terror. Key spying methods Widespread use of civilian informants Many ordinary Germans, coworkers, neighbors, and even family members secretly reported each other to the authorities (so‑called “denunciations”), ...

What are the key U.S. income tax changes for 2025? For 2025, the biggest U.S. individual income tax changes come from inflation adjustments in recent legislation, which boosts the standard deduction, adds a large extra deduction for seniors, raises the SALT cap, and creates new breaks on tips and overtime. Retirement plan and other tax‑favored account limits also move up with inflation. ​ Standard deduction and seniors The standard deduction for 2025 is   (single/MFS),   (HOH), and   (MFJ/QSS). ​ Starting in 2025, taxpayers age 65+ can claim an additional   deduction (on top of standard or itemized), phasing out above   MAGI single /   joint, and not available to married filing separately. ​ Brackets, SALT cap, and key rate rules The seven federal brackets (10%–37%) remain, but 2025 bracket thresholds are higher than 2024 due to inflation; for example, the 37% bracket for single fi...

What are the prospects for the economy in 2026? Consensus expectations point to slow but positive global and U.S. growth in 2026, with inflation easing and recession risks elevated but not base‑case. ​ Global growth picture The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook pegs global GDP growth around 3.0–3.1% in 2026, a bit below pre‑COVID norms and described as a “dim” or subdued expansion. ​ Trade tensions and tariffs, particularly involving the U.S., are cited as key headwinds, alongside high debt loads and tighter financial conditions in many economies. ​ United States outlook Major forecasters expect real U.S. GDP growth in the neighborhood of 1.8–2.0% in 2026, down slightly from 2025 but still positive. ​ Unemployment is projected to drift up toward roughly 4.5–4.7% as the labor market cools, while PCE inflation is expected to run a bit above 3% early in 2026 and fall back toward a little above 2% by yearend. ​ ...

HAPPY NEW YEAR! Rather than ranting about the absurdity of annual market forecasts that always have no basis in reality, the following is a superb New York Times commentary by Jeff Sommer about Wall Street’s usual round of absurd views of what’s ahead for the investment markets. (Published December 19, 2025) Want to Know Where the Market Is Going? Don’t Trust This, or Any, Forecast. Wall Street stock gurus are making predictions again. Our columnist got into the game with a number he doesn’t believe. By  Jeff Sommer Wall Street experts are forecasting where the S&P 500 will close at the end of the next calendar year. Why shouldn’t I do the same? You might object that I have no idea where the market is going, and you would be right. But so what? Nobody else knows, either, and that’s never stopped Wall Street. The professional strategists are spewing out numbers in a preposterous annual ritual. These forecasts are almost always incorrect. When they’re right, it’s on...