Will AI improve my investment results? AI can help your investing mainly by lowering costs, automating good behavior, and making information easier to process, not by giving you a magic “beat the market” button. Whether it improves your results depends entirely on how you use it and whether it reinforces, rather than undermines, a disciplined, index‑oriented plan. Where AI can genuinely help Decision support: Well‑designed tools can nudge you toward better diversification, appropriate risk levels, and avoiding obvious mistakes, which can modestly improve long‑term outcomes. Some studies find AI models can forecast earnings changes and trading signals more accurately than human analysts in specific contexts, though that does not automatically translate into higher net returns for typical retail portfolios. Automation and robo‑advisors: Automated services generally build low‑cost, diversified ETF portfolios and rebalance them for you,...
Why You Should Watch the Shiller CAPE Index The Shiller CAPE Index is a long‑term valuation metric for stocks that compares today’s prices to 10 years of inflation‑adjusted earnings, and you should care because extreme readings have historically lined up with meaningfully different long‑run returns. What the Shiller CAPE Index is CAPE stands for Cyclically Adjusted Price‑to‑Earnings ratio, also called the Shiller P/E or P/E 10. It is calculated as: current index level divided by the average of the last 10 years of earnings per share, with those earnings adjusted for inflation. Robert Shiller popularized it to smooth out the business cycle noise that distorts the usual one‑year P/E. What it is trying to tell you By averaging a decade of real earnings, CAPE aims to say, “How expensive is this market relative to a normal level of earnings through a full cycle?” Higher‑than‑average CAPE has historically bee...