How likely is a major stock market pullback this year? A major pullback is possible this year, but not something anyone can time with confidence . The sources I found point to a market that is still supported by strong earnings expectations and AI enthusiasm, while also looking vulnerable because valuations are rich and surprises can hit hard. How to think about the odds A 5% to 10% drawdown is fairly normal in most years, and some commentators say 2026 already looks close to that range. The bigger risk is a correction or sharper pullback if earnings disappoint, inflation reaccelerates or geopolitics and policy shocks shake confidence. At the same time, some strategists still expect the bull market to continue, which means the market is not uniformly flashing recession or crash signals. What raises the risk High valuations leave less room for error. Concentration in a few large stocks makes indexes more fragile if leadership wea...
How is the stock market doing? As of late July 2026, the answer depends on exactly how you measure it, but the numbers show a striking difference. S&P 500 (cap-weighted): about +8.5% year to date . S&P 500 Ex-Magnificent 7 Index: about +12.2% year to date (price return as of July 24, 2026). That means the S&P 500 excluding the Magnificent Seven has actually outperformed the traditional S&P 500 by roughly 3.7 percentage points so far this year. This is a notable reversal from 2023–2025, when the Magnificent Seven (Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Tesla) were responsible for a disproportionate share of the index's gains. In 2026: Several Magnificent Seven stocks have stumbled or corrected. Healthcare, financials, industrials, and many smaller technology and semiconductor companies have taken over market leadership. The equal-weighted S&P 500 has also outperformed the traditional ...