Most major Wall Street outlooks currently do expect a positive, though more modest, gain for US stocks in 2026, not a flat or down year. What Wall Street Is Pricing In Large strategists’ S&P 500 targets cluster in low- to mid‑single‑digit to low‑teens price gains (roughly 3–13% price upside), plus dividends. FactSet’s earnings aggregation points to about 15% S&P 500 EPS growth in 2026, which historically has been consistent with at least some positive equity return, even if multiples compress. Key Bullish Supports Forecasts generally assume: continued (but slower) US growth around a bit above 2%, falling recession odds near 30%, and incremental Fed easing supporting risk assets. Multiple houses (Goldman, Morgan Stanley, Yardeni, etc.) see a fourth straight up year driven primarily by earnings growth rather than further valuation expansion. Why Upside May Be Smaller Consens...
What is the likely result of the upcoming midterm elections in November? There is no single “likely result” yet, but early indicators suggest Democrats have a modest edge to gain in the U.S. House and a plausible, though harder, path to a narrow Senate majority, while Republicans are favored to remain highly competitive overall. Forecasts are still uncertain this far out, and small shifts in national mood or candidate quality could flip control of one or both chambers. House of Representatives Democrats need only a handful of seats to flip the House, after Republicans entered the cycle with a slim majority (around 220 seats) and face the usual midterm drag on the president’s party. Generic-ballot polling and independent forecast models currently lean slightly toward Democrats netting enough gains to take a narrow House majority, but ratings still show many true toss‑ups. Senate Republicans hold a 53–47 Senate majority going int...
