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Sound Advice: February 4, 2026

 Most major Wall Street outlooks currently do expect a positive, though more modest, gain for US stocks in 2026, not a flat or down year.​

What Wall Street Is Pricing In

  • Large strategists’ S&P 500 targets cluster in low- to mid‑single‑digit to low‑teens price gains (roughly 3–13% price upside), plus dividends.​
  • FactSet’s earnings aggregation points to about 15% S&P 500 EPS growth in 2026, which historically has been consistent with at least some positive equity return, even if multiples compress.​

Key Bullish Supports

  • Forecasts generally assume: continued (but slower) US growth around a bit above 2%, falling recession odds near 30%, and incremental Fed easing supporting risk assets.​
  • Multiple houses (Goldman, Morgan Stanley, Yardeni, etc.) see a fourth straight up year driven primarily by earnings growth rather than further valuation expansion.​

Why Upside May Be Smaller

  • Consensus emphasizes that 2024–2025 were unusually strong years, so 2026 is framed as a “grind higher” with more volatility and lower returns versus the past two years.​
  • Risks they keep flagging: AI/mega‑cap concentration, any stumble in earnings, policy mistakes, and labor‑market weakening that could flip the soft‑landing narrative.​

How Your View Fits In

  • The statement “don’t expect a big gain” is broadly aligned with the idea of mid‑single‑digit to low‑teens total return rather than another 20–25% year; a “big” year is not the base case in most outlooks.​

Best bet: Vanguard’s expectation of a 3% gain. 

  • Invariably, a span of several years of hefty double-digit gains is followed by either a modest advance or a pullback.  In the past, whenever valuations were stretched, the next few years were far less profitable for investors.  The most recent example was the extraordinary market rise of the dot.com period. Over the next decade, there was minimal market progress. 
  • Average annual advances over the 100 years since the inception of the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index were in the high single digits.  Given that perspective, it seems likely that leaner times lie ahead.​
Where your view would diverge from current consensus is if you mean “no gain or a loss,” because the modal forecasts today are still for some positive return, albeit much more modest than in 2024–2025.

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