Sound Advice

Why you need to ignore commercials about stock picking Commercials about stock picking are designed to sell, not to build your wealth, and the incentives and evidence behind them are stacked against individual investors. They play on emotion, selective data, and short-term stories rather than a repeatable, long-term process grounded in your goals and risk tolerance. How stock-picking ads actually work They are marketing, not research. The primary goal is to gather assets, sell newsletters, or generate trading commissions, not to improve your risk‑adjusted returns. They highlight winners and ignore losers. Showing a few huge past successes hides the many ideas that went nowhere or blew up, a classic survivorship and cherry‑picking problem. Why the promises are misleading Past performance is not predictive. Even professional active managers who publish full track records struggle to consistently beat broad indexes after fees a...

Are there financial advisors who are really different? There are advisors who operate very differently from the stereotypical product-pusher, but you have to know what to look for and how to verify it. ​ What “different” really means For an advisor who is genuinely different, look for: Acts as a fiduciary all the time, not just “when providing advice”. ​ Is paid only by you (fee-only: flat, hourly, or % of assets) with no commissions or kickbacks from products. ​ Provides comprehensive planning (tax, retirement, estate, risk, cash flow), not just portfolio sales. ​ Key structural signs Fee-only vs. commission/fee-based Fee-only: compensated solely by client fees; no product commissions or revenue sharing. ​ Fee-based/commission: may earn both fees and product commissions, creating conflicts of interest. ​ Fiduciary commitment Registered investment advisors and many CFP prof...

  Most major Wall Street outlooks currently  do  expect a positive, though more modest, gain for US stocks in 2026, not a flat or down year. ​ What Wall Street Is Pricing In Large strategists’ S&P 500 targets cluster in low- to mid‑single‑digit to low‑teens price gains (roughly 3–13% price upside), plus dividends. ​ FactSet’s earnings aggregation points to about 15% S&P 500 EPS growth in 2026, which historically has been consistent with at least some positive equity return, even if multiples compress. ​ Key Bullish Supports Forecasts generally assume: continued (but slower) US growth around a bit above 2%, falling recession odds near 30%, and incremental Fed easing supporting risk assets. ​ Multiple houses (Goldman, Morgan Stanley, Yardeni, etc.) see a fourth straight up year driven primarily by earnings growth rather than further valuation expansion. ​ Why Upside May Be Smaller Consens...