Skip to main content

Sound Advice: April 10, 2024

 Dynamic charting and all kinds of goodies are now offered by a major brokerage house.  So what!

It comes as no surprise that one of the leading Wall Street firms has been beating its drum for its recently acquired online trading subsidiary.  On the heels of a robust six-month market rally, investors, as usual, are much more interested in getting a piece of the action than they were early last Fall.  That’s the way it has always been.

Over the nearly one century since the inception of the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, the best of times to make commitments (to stocks, not mental institutions) has been when the market has been weak and prices are low. For most things, folks tend to have increased interest in buying low.  Strangely enough, however, the higher prices go, the more investors want to buy.

So here we are at a considerably higher level than late 2023 and we now have the opportunity to sign up for an online account to take advantage of a less than remarkable group of quasi-research tools from a company that would have you believe you have been given the key to the mint.  It is, unfortunately, anything but.

Dynamic charting is the lead hook for these commercials.  Charting, also known as technical analysis, appears to be a fascinating approach.  There are numerous signals and patterns to behold.  And, indeed, there are “esteemed” textbooks, the heft of which is aimed at convincing you that they offer special wisdom.  A far better use for them would be as kindling for a fire.

Along with the charts is a myriad of data to sort through and find especially worthwhile candidates for your portfolio.  All the data you would ever want has been available for years, so this is nothing new.  This data is what professional analysts spend all of their time digesting and evaluating in hope of pinpointing stocks with exceptional potential. 

The hitch is that the output from this crew ultimately ends up in the portfolios of major investment companies.  If interested, you, too, can do the same.  But it really doesn’t matter.

Why?  Because none of the pros have demonstrated the ability to outperform the indexes over extended periods.  Far better to focus on a proper allocation of assets between indexed equity mutual funds and fixed income holdings. 

And if you have nothing else to do, watch CNBC, but don’t take them seriously.

N. Russell Wayne

Weston, CT

Any questions: please contact me at nrwayne@soundasset.com

203-895-8877

www.soundasset.blogspot.com

 

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Sound Advice: January 3, 2025

2025 Market Forecasts: Stupidity Taken To An Extreme   If you know anything about stock market performance, you can only gag at the nonsense “esteemed forecasters” are now putting forth about the prospective path of stocks in the year ahead.   Our cousins in the UK would call this rubbish.   I would not be as kind. Leading the Ship of Fools is the forecast from the Chief Investment Strategist at Oppenheimer who is looking for a year-end 2025 level for the Standard & Poor’s Index of 7,100, a whopping 21% increase from the most recent standing.   Indeed, most of these folks are looking for double-digit gains.   Only two expect stocks to weaken. In the last 30 years, the market has risen by more than 20% only 15 times.   The exceptional span during that time was 1996-1999, which accounted for four of those jumps.   What followed in 2000 through 2002 was the polar opposite: 2000:      -9.1% 2001:     -11.9% ...

Sound Advice: January 15, 2025

Why investors shouldn't pay attention to Wall Street forecasts   Investors shouldn't pay attention to Wall Street forecasts for several compelling reasons: Poor accuracy Wall Street forecasts have a terrible track record of accuracy. Studies show that their predictions are often no better than random chance, with accuracy rates as low as 47%   Some prominent analysts even perform worse, with accuracy ratings as low as 35% Consistent overestimation Analysts consistently overestimate earnings growth, predicting 10-12%                 annual growth when the reality is closer to 6%.   This overoptimism can                 lead investors to make overly aggressive bets in the market. Inability to predict unpredictable events The stock market is influenced by numerous unpredictable factors, including geopolitical events, technological changes, and company-specific news.   Anal...

Sound Advice: July 16, 2025

Fixed annuities are poor investments Fixed annuities are often criticized as poor investments for several reasons, despite their reputation for providing stable, predictable income.  Here are the key drawbacks and concerns:   High Fees and Commissions Internal Fees:  Fixed annuities can carry a range of fees, including administrative charges, mortality expense risk fees, and rider fees. These can add up to 2%–4% per year, significantly eroding returns over time. Commissions:  Sales agents and financial advisors often receive high commissions for selling annuities—sometimes as much as 5%–8% of the invested amount. This creates a financial incentive for advisers to recommend them, even when they may not be the best fit for the client. Comparison to Other Investments:  Mutual funds and ETFs typically have much lower fees and commissions, making them more cost-effective for long-term growth. Limited Growth a...