Why Do Stocks Go Up . . . And Down?
As much as private investors (as well as some Wall
Streeters) think that there’s a mystical force that determines stock prices,
the reality is anything but. What drives
stock prices, and the overall stock market, is profitability. When companies make more money, their stock
prices rise over time. As the country’s economy grows, the stock market rises.
Patterns of growth, however, are anything but linear. Major events, both positive and negative,
regularly disrupt the long-term path of progress. Wars, bank failures, and periods of business
weakness are just a few of the issues that alarm investors and cause them to
suffer the most serious concern: uncertainty.
When the view of economic prospects ahead becomes
cloudy, investors start by becoming fearful.
Then they hit the panic button.
Invariably, these significant shifts in psychology push stock prices
lower. That, in turn, leads more astute
investors to take advantage of the pullbacks, which for shares of healthy companies
will ensure broader gains for them as things get back to normal.
Healthy companies such as Procter & Gamble, Automatic
Data Processing, and UnitedHealth Group are examples of consistent annual
progress over extended periods. Indeed,
for the latest five years, each of these companies managed to improve their net
income, so it should come as no surprise that their shares either matched or
bettered the results of the overall market (S&P 500).
As you can see from the patterns of this chart, the path of least resistance was up, marred only by the drop at the onset of the recent pandemic.
Consistent progress over time is the exception, not
the rule. Few companies have been
capable of moving ahead without even the briefest of interruptions.
The flip side of consistency is cyclicality, a prime
example of which is companies related to the construction industry. A look at the price charts of those stocks will
illustrate the considerable impact of the ongoing ups and downs that comes with
that territory.
It’s essential to underscore the importance of continuing
progress from regular company operations. Investors must ignore nonrecurring items (e.g.,
big gains from asset sales), which rarely have any bearing on share prices
unless the proceeds from same are reinvested to accelerate organic growth.
N. Russell Wayne, CFP
Sound Asset Management Inc.
Weston, CT 06883
203-895-8877
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