Skip to main content

Sound Advice: June 7, 2023

Attention, Traders!

While the investment markets have done little more than marking time over the last couple of months, I’ve noticed an increasing number of TV commercials aimed at the same folks who go to casinos with the belief that they can beat the system.  The typical commercial has a person sitting in front of a large monitor displaying an abundance of charts and tables intended to create the belief that all the magic needed to make a fortune is there waiting for them.

Fascinating?  And absurd. 

Investment analysts whose time is devoted exclusively to wading through all of the information available to determine what’s likely to be a good holding and what’s not don’t exactly have stellar records of making the best choices.  So how is a typical investor supposed to decipher a screen full of essentially useless data?

Quite possibly the extreme example of this was a stockbroker friend of mine who had an opposing pair of large semicircular desks surrounding him.  The rear desk had six massive monitors, each of which had a different chart of something (possibly daily rainfall in New Guinea) for the express purpose of impressing whoever came to consult with him.

Visiting with this gentleman was not unlike a day watching the Jumbotrons at Fenway Park.  From the standpoint of presentation, the guy was a star. 

His career began with a stint in selling vinyl siding and eventually led to managing the office of a regional brokerage house.  The office was elegantly appointed with model sailing ships and other memorabilia intended to build longstanding confidence in the services being offered. 

Along the way, he grew a well-trimmed beard and added wire-rimmed Ben Franklin glasses.  All of this added up to his accomplishment of being the second highest producing broker in the company.

Did he know much about investments?  No, but he knew about people.  His entire approach was about dazzling them with his footwork.

So when your television screen shifts to commercials about how to take advantage of new trading opportunities, please do your best not to gag.

  

N. Russell Wayne, CFPÒ

Any questions?  Please contact me at nrwayne@soundasset.com


Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Sound Advice: January 3, 2025

2025 Market Forecasts: Stupidity Taken To An Extreme   If you know anything about stock market performance, you can only gag at the nonsense “esteemed forecasters” are now putting forth about the prospective path of stocks in the year ahead.   Our cousins in the UK would call this rubbish.   I would not be as kind. Leading the Ship of Fools is the forecast from the Chief Investment Strategist at Oppenheimer who is looking for a year-end 2025 level for the Standard & Poor’s Index of 7,100, a whopping 21% increase from the most recent standing.   Indeed, most of these folks are looking for double-digit gains.   Only two expect stocks to weaken. In the last 30 years, the market has risen by more than 20% only 15 times.   The exceptional span during that time was 1996-1999, which accounted for four of those jumps.   What followed in 2000 through 2002 was the polar opposite: 2000:      -9.1% 2001:     -11.9% ...

Sound Advice: January 15, 2025

Why investors shouldn't pay attention to Wall Street forecasts   Investors shouldn't pay attention to Wall Street forecasts for several compelling reasons: Poor accuracy Wall Street forecasts have a terrible track record of accuracy. Studies show that their predictions are often no better than random chance, with accuracy rates as low as 47%   Some prominent analysts even perform worse, with accuracy ratings as low as 35% Consistent overestimation Analysts consistently overestimate earnings growth, predicting 10-12%                 annual growth when the reality is closer to 6%.   This overoptimism can                 lead investors to make overly aggressive bets in the market. Inability to predict unpredictable events The stock market is influenced by numerous unpredictable factors, including geopolitical events, technological changes, and company-specific news.   Anal...

Sound Advice: October 12, 2022

More Pain Ahead? It’s been a difficult year for the investment markets, but tough times have happened before and they will certainly happen again.   Sometimes recoveries are relatively quick and sometimes a hefty dose of patience is required.   No two downdrafts are alike, but the net result is always a rebound to even higher levels than seen before. One of the most uncomfortable stretches over the last half century took place during the oil embargo days of the early and mid-1970s.   Market valuations fell to the high single digits, a level that was about half the historic average.   For investors, this was one of the great sales of all time.   Those who had the courage to get aboard reaped huge rewards. More recent pullbacks of note took place during the dot.com days of the turn of the millennium and the banking crisis of 2008-9.   The former period was marked by what appeared to be investors’ absolute indifference to longstanding measures of reasona...