The paradox of changing interest rates
With rare exception, the predominant belief is that when
interest rates are rising, the stock market will slide . . . and
vice-versa. As recently as the early
part of 2020, when the pandemic led to a widespread plunge in the economy, the
Fed slashed interest rates and stocks did an abrupt about-face following a
distressing drop and ended up the year with a well above average gain. A silver bullet, indeed. But the reality is that over extended
periods, there’s more than sufficient evidence to show that the market’s
reactions to the Fed’s efforts to stimulate or ease the pace of the economy vary
widely.
At the moment, we are faced with an inflation rate in
the high single digits and, despite the central bank’s recent series of unusually
high hikes in the federal funds rate, one suspects that even more tightening
will be needed to get an unacceptably high rate of price increases under
control. Over the last 50 years, when
the Fed did approve a change, it was almost always in the range of 0.25% to
0.50%, the latter viewed as rather hefty.
Yet, in all three of their latest three meetings, the governors voted
for increases of 0.75%. And there may
well be more of these to come.
Given the stock market’s extended pullback so far this
year, one has to wonder whether there may be more big dips ahead. A look at what happened during each of the last
five periods of rising rates (a span from February, 1994 to July, 2019)
suggests a less pessimistic picture. The
average market change, as measured by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, while rates
were climbing was a gain of 62.9%. One of the more interesting examples was the time
from June 29, 2004 to September 17, 2007 when the federal funds rate skyrocketed
from 1.0% to 5.25% . . . and the Dow gained 28.7%.
Yes, this time is different. Rates have been going up much more rapidly
than ever before. Even so, there will
come a point when the impact of tighter monetary policy starts to produce the
hoped-for results. The risk is that, as
has often been the case in the past, the economy will be hit too hard. That will lead to a subsequent easing.
Once the prospect of rate easing emerges, stocks will
rebound and bonds, which have been hit by rising interest rates, will also be
positioned to provide both a reasonable current yield and price appreciation.
We are not there yet, but could be within a matter of months.
N. Russell Wayne, CFPÒ
Any questions? Please contact me at nrwayne@soundasset.com
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