Sound Advice

Why investors should ignore all media commercials about how to pick hot stocks Investors should ignore media commercials about how to pick hot stocks for several well-supported reasons: Advertising Influences Short-Term Attention, Not Long-Term Value Media commercials and advertising campaigns can attract investor attention and temporarily boost a stock’s price, especially among retail investors. Research shows this effect is usually short-lived, and stocks with increased advertising often underperform in the following years as the initial hype fades. This pattern is especially strong for companies with less analyst coverage and more retail ownership.   Commercials Often Promote Speculative or Unproven Strategies Stock picking commercials frequently promise extraordinary returns or “secret” systems, but these claims are not backed by credible evidence. The track record of stock picking—whether by individuals or ...

Don’t bother trying to beat the market   Beating the market consistently—meaning achieving higher returns than a benchmark like the S&P 500 over the long term—is extraordinarily difficult for both professionals and individual investors.  Here’s why: Market Efficiency and Crowd Behavior Most investors—including professionals—tend to follow conventional wisdom or popular investment strategies, often based on partial truths or myths. This leads to widespread herd behavior, making it hard for anyone to gain a real edge simply by following the crowd. Critical thinking and independent analysis are rare, and even those who try to think differently often find themselves influenced by entrenched beliefs. The market is highly efficient at absorbing information, so any widely known strategy or insight is quickly priced in, leaving little opportunity for outperformance. Performance Statistics Professional Underperformance:  Studies consistently show that the vast...

  Should Individuals Invest in Initial Public Offerings? Investing in Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) can be both an exciting opportunity and a significant risk for individual investors. Whether or not you should invest depends on your risk tolerance, investment goals, and ability to conduct thorough research. Potential Benefits of Investing in IPOs Early Entry Advantage : IPOs allow investors to buy shares at the initial offer price, which may be lower than the price after the stock starts trading publicly. If the company performs well, early investors could see substantial gains. Growth Opportunities : Many IPOs are from companies in high-growth sectors such as technology, renewable energy, or biotech. Early investment can offer exposure to innovative businesses with significant long-term potential. Portfolio Diversification : IPOs can provide access to new industries or markets not represented in your current portfolio,...

Is Private Equity a Good Choice for Investors?   Investing in private equity can be a good choice for certain investors, but it comes with both significant advantages and notable risks.   Whether private equity is suitable depends on an investor's financial goals, risk tolerance, and investment horizon. Advantages of Private Equity Higher Return Potential : Private equity investments often target companies with high growth potential or those undergoing strategic changes, which can result in returns that outperform public equities over the long term. Diversification : Private equity offers exposure to assets not correlated with traditional investments, reducing overall portfolio risk. Access to Unique Opportunities : Investors can gain exposure to emerging technologies, startups, and companies undergoing transformation—opportunities often unavailable in public markets. Active Involvement : Investors may have t...

Does The Stock Market Have A Seasonal Pattern?   Yes, there are well-documented seasonal patterns in the stock market, which are recurring trends observed during specific times of the year.   These patterns are influenced by historical market behavior, investor psychology, and external factors such as economic events or climatic conditions.   Here are some notable examples: Common Seasonal Patterns Sell in May and Go Away : Suggests that markets tend to underperform between May and October. Investors often return in November for a stronger performance period. January Effect : Stocks, particularly small-cap stocks, often see increased buying in January as investors reinvest after year-end tax-loss harvesting. Santa Claus Rally : The stock market often performs well in the last week of December and the first two trading days of January due to holiday optimism and lighter trading volum...

What is the likelihood the Dow will rise to 100,000 in the next 10 years   The odds of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) reaching 100,000 in the next 10 years depend on several factors, including historical growth rates, economic conditions, and transformative technological advancements. Historical Growth Perspective The Dow has grown significantly over the past century, with an average annual return of approximately 7-8% when including dividends. This growth rate, however, fluctuates depending on market cycles and external factors like inflation and recessions. Over the past decade (2015–2024), the Dow's average annual return has been roughly 8.5%, with some years seeing double-digit gains (e.g., 2021: +18.73%, 2019: +22.34%) and others experiencing losses (e.g., 2022: -8.78%). Required Growth Rate To reach 100,000 from its current level of approximately 41,584 (as of March 31, 2025), the Dow would need to grow at an annu...