Sound Advice

What are the prospects for the economy in 2026? Consensus expectations point to slow but positive global and U.S. growth in 2026, with inflation easing and recession risks elevated but not base‑case. ​ Global growth picture The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook pegs global GDP growth around 3.0–3.1% in 2026, a bit below pre‑COVID norms and described as a “dim” or subdued expansion. ​ Trade tensions and tariffs, particularly involving the U.S., are cited as key headwinds, alongside high debt loads and tighter financial conditions in many economies. ​ United States outlook Major forecasters expect real U.S. GDP growth in the neighborhood of 1.8–2.0% in 2026, down slightly from 2025 but still positive. ​ Unemployment is projected to drift up toward roughly 4.5–4.7% as the labor market cools, while PCE inflation is expected to run a bit above 3% early in 2026 and fall back toward a little above 2% by yearend. ​ ...

HAPPY NEW YEAR! Rather than ranting about the absurdity of annual market forecasts that always have no basis in reality, the following is a superb New York Times commentary by Jeff Sommer about Wall Street’s usual round of absurd views of what’s ahead for the investment markets. (Published December 19, 2025) Want to Know Where the Market Is Going? Don’t Trust This, or Any, Forecast. Wall Street stock gurus are making predictions again. Our columnist got into the game with a number he doesn’t believe. By  Jeff Sommer Wall Street experts are forecasting where the S&P 500 will close at the end of the next calendar year. Why shouldn’t I do the same? You might object that I have no idea where the market is going, and you would be right. But so what? Nobody else knows, either, and that’s never stopped Wall Street. The professional strategists are spewing out numbers in a preposterous annual ritual. These forecasts are almost always incorrect. When they’re right, it’s on...

Learn from yesterday, live for today, hope for tomorrow.   Albert Einstein

Don't wait too long to use your airline miles or credit card points Airline miles typically have expiration policies that vary by program, but many miles expire after a period of inactivity, often ranging from 18 to 36 months. For example, Air Canada Aeroplan miles expire after 18 months of inactivity, Air France-KLM Flying Blue miles expire after 24 months without qualifying activity, and other airlines like British Airways and Lufthansa have miles that expire after 36 months of inactivity. Some premium status members may have miles that never expire as long as they maintain their status. Credit card points also require attention because redemption rates, transfer options, and redemption methods can influence the value you get from your points. Airlines and credit card programs may change redemption rates or policies over time. Generally, it's wise not to hoard miles or points too long without redeeming because they can lose value, expire, or programs can devalue the rewar...

When is the best time of year to get the best prices when shopping? The best time of year to get the best prices when shopping depends on the type of item, but there are several key periods known for deep discounts: Major holiday weekends like Memorial Day, Labor Day, and Presidents Day are excellent for big sales across electronics, appliances, furniture, and more. Post-holiday sales in January and late December often feature markdowns on seasonal items like winter clothing and holiday decorations. End of season clearance sales offer good deals on clothing: winter clothes in January-February, spring gear in May, summer wear in July-August, and fall attire in October-December. Black Friday (the day after Thanksgiving) and Cyber Monday bring steep discounts on a wide range of products, including tech, clothing, and toys. Amazon Prime Day (several over the course of the year) is a good time for technology and home goods deals. Ba...

Why should investors ignore commercials about trading? Investors should largely ignore commercials about trading because these advertisements often exaggerate potential benefits, downplay risks, and promote strategies that are most unlikely to align with an individual’s financial goals or risk tolerance. Misleading Promises and Exaggerated Returns Many trading commercials emphasize quick profits or "secret" strategies, often using testimonials or simulated results that do not represent the average real-world experience. Such claims often encourage unrealistic expectations and impulsive decisions, which can lead to significant financial losses. Commercials typically neglect to fully explain the risks involved in trading, such as market volatility, leverage dangers, and the risk of losing a substantial portion of invested capital. They may also skip over hidden costs like commissions, spreads, and platform fees, which can eat into potential profits. Misalignment with ...